Rugby Asteroid

An All Black losing streak? Now there’s something you don’t see every day. But we could be on the verge of one given the broken and inexperienced state of the team flying to Australia this week. I’ve even gone so far as to risk my number one ranking in Rugby Asteroid’s experts’ panel by predicting a win for the Wallabies this Saturday in Sydney. I hope it doesn’t happen, but my spider-sense is tingling like it hasn’t in a long time. If Australia does win, we’ll have a bona fide losing streak for New Zealand – two losses in a row.

The last time the ABs lost two in a row was during the Tri-Nations series of 2004. In August of that year New Zealand were beaten by Australia in Sydney and then thumped by the Boks, five tries to two, in Jo’burg the following week. (Those were the days when the Springboks knew how to score tries.)

An All Black losing streak is about as common as a leap year and they don’t last long. After their last pair of losses the ABs bounced back winning their next 7 games in emphatic fashion, scoring 44 tries while conceding just 6. And three of those wins came against the British Lions.

Incidentally, the last time the Wallabies lost two in a row was in 2006. Like this season, that was a nine game Tri-Nations series. Australia lost all three of their matches to New Zealand but managed to beat South Africa twice. However, they came off the rails towards the end of the series losing to the ABs in Auckland on 19 August then losing their next match against the Boks in Jo’burg on 9 September. Unlike the ABs, they didn’t bounce back well. Their next few games included a draw to Wales, a slight win over Italy, and then a thumping from Ireland.

And what of South Africa? How far to we have to go back to find a losing streak for the current “World Champions”? We need only look back to last year’s Tri-Nations where the Boks managed to lose not two but three matches in a row, a feat unmatched by their SANZAR rivals in the current century.

You may recall that the 2007 Tri-Nations was a disastrous tournament for South Africa. Questions were raised as to their style and standard of play. Then, just as the knives were being plunged into Jake White’s back, the sun broke through the clouds of doubt and South Africa scraped wins over a host of other B-teams to win the Rugby World Cup in November. It was a brilliant end to a mediocre season.

Lately a few of our readers have made the audacious claim that the Boks have a legitimate claim to being the world’s number one team. This claim is made in spite of the farcical methods currently used to determine this ranking.

But one way to assess championship qualities is to consider losing streaks – how frequently do they occur and how long do they run. Most would agree that the mark of a true champion is the avoidance of losing streaks. Champions lose only occasionally but losers lose regularly. If we apply the “losing streak test” to the Springboks, then the evidence suggests that they perhaps more lucky than deserving.

Since 2000 the Boks have had no fewer than 10 losing streaks. In contrast, the Wallabies, even with their annus horribilis of 2005, have had just six while the All Blacks – you can probably guess what I’m going to say next – have had just one.

And all this makes Saturday’s game particularly historic.

Not only do we have the much-hyped rivalry between the world’s top two rugby coaches, not only do we have Trans-Tasman bragging rights up for grabs, but we have the possibility of a rare losing streak for the world’s best team.