Rugby Asteroid

In what is becoming a distinguishing feature of the Super 14, three of the top four positions are still up for grabs in the final round. Amazingly, with just one game to be played by each team, half of the league has a chance of making the cut. Something like this happens almost every year.

Last year in final four weren’t decided until the very final match of the tournament when the Bulls pulled off a miracle beating the Reds 92 to 3 propelling themselves from 6^th to 2^nd place. In the first year of the Super 14 (2006), something like 11 or 12 teams had a statistical shot at making the semi-finals with three rounds to go. That was the first year the Bulls showed their knack for pulling rabbits out of last-round hats which they did by scoring exactly the 33 points they needed in their final game to take the Sharks’ spot in the semis.

Surely the rivalry in the Super 14 is one of the bright spots in SANZAR Rugby. One of the great things about this competition is that any team can get up and beat any other on the day. Just ask the Chiefs. A few weeks ago they beat the league leaders. Yesterday they were beaten by the wooden-spooners. It wouldn’t be unthinkable for the Highlanders to get up and snatch a win against the Crusaders in Christchurch next week (though I wouldn’t bet on it). The Lions may even damage the Stormers’ chances in Jo’burg (but I wouldn’t bet on that either).

Here’s how the final round is shaping up for the seven teams that still have a chance of making it through:

1. Crusaders (currently with 52 points) v Highlanders (Christchurch). Expect Robbie Deans to rest his stars for the last game against the Highlanders. The Crusaders have nothing to play for and this is a good chance for the second stringers to get a run. After yesterday’s near-fiasco against the Reds the reserves have a lot to prove. Saders should win.

2. Hurricanes (40 points) v Blues (Auckland): While attention has been focused elsewhere, the Hurricances have been quietly getting the job done these past few weeks winning four of their past five. Yet they still need to win against the Blues to secure a spot. If they lose or draw their fate will be decided by other teams. For years the Blues had the goods on the Canes, but not lately. The Canes have won their last three match-ups and have given the Blues two good hidings in Auckland. Expect them to do it again.

3. Waratahs (39 points) v Reds (Brisbane): Amazingly, the Reds played better after Latham left the field injured yesterday. Perhaps this was because the new Wallaby coach was sitting on the sidelines. Expect a similarly fierce contest when Queenlanders and New South Welshman meet next week. There’s no way the Reds will lay down and let the Tahs waltz through to the semis without a fight. That said, the Tahs will win.

4. Stormers (37 points) v Lions (Jo’burg): Let’s face it – the only way the Lions beat the Chiefs yesterday was by playing dirty and kicking 100%. The Stormers will win.

5. Sharks (37 points) v Chiefs (Durban): The Sharks finally managed a much-needed win against the Cheetahs arresting a three game losing streak. But let’s be real – the Sharks haven’t beaten a top six team in two months. This has not been their year. Given the mismatch in the Stormers game, the Sharks will be hoping the Reds can beat the Tahs in the earlier match.

6. Blues (36 points) v Canes (Auckland): The Blues beat the lowly Highlanders yesterday and suddenly the diet in Auckland has changed from crucified rugby player to foamy cups of wishful thinking. Honestly, the journalists in this town are like stockbrokers, they make money whether you’re up or down. As long as there is grist to grind they’ll grind it. So let this outsider come in with a little dose of reality – “fellas, you’ve not done real well against good teams this year – you’re just one win and four losses with another loss on the way.”

7. Chiefs (34 points) v Sharks (Durban): I heard on the radio that Stephen Donald had been taken to hospital after their shock loss to the Lions owing to some neck injury. If he’s out, the Chiefs have no chance of beating the Sharks in Durban next week and their season is already over. If he’s fit this will be the best match of the last round, unless of course, the Blues beat the Canes or the Tahs beat the Reds, in which case, this game will count for nothing. My head says Sharks, but my heart, liver and pancreas say “go Chiefs!”